Situational Paper

Introduction

Indian State Assembly elections were held in four States on February 14-21,2002 — in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur and Uttaranchal. The election results clearly show that BJP’s popularity graph is declining sharply. The BJP government has suffered a heavy defeat in three of the four States. Before the current elections, BJP was in power in Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. In Punjab, there was an Akali Dal-BJP-led government. The State of Manipur was under Presidential rule since June 2001, when the Samata Party government (an allied party in National Democratic Alliance - NDA) was removed because of differences with BJP. During the February 2002 State Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has emerged as the single largest party. However, it lacks the required majority of 202 seats to form the government. In Punjab and Uttaranchal, Congress I has emerged as the majority party to form the government. In Manipur, there is an inconclusive verdict with no single party emerging in strength. For detailed election results see Appendix.

Since the BJP-led NDA government came to power at the Centre in 1999, the current round of elections is the third phase of State Assembly elections in India. In February 2000, during the first phase, State Assembly elections were held in Bihar, Orrisa, Haryana, and Manipur. Congress I suffered a rout, however, BJP also could not emerge as the principle party in any of the four States. According to the results, the Biju Janata Dal emerged as the major party in Qrissa; the Indian National Lok Dal as major party in Haryana; the Samata Party as main party in Bihar; and the Manipur State Congress Party as major party in Manipur. The second phase of elections was held in May 2001 in four States - Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam — and one Union territory - Pondicherry. The results showed growing dissatisfaction of the voters with the BJP-alliance at the Centre. In Tamil Nadu opposition coalition led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnethra Kazagam (AIADMK) emerged as the major alliance; in West Bengal the Communist Party of India (CPI-M) formed government; in Kerala and Assam Congress I emerged as the major party; and in Pondicherry Congress I in alliance with AIADMK formed government.

After the completion of the recent third phase of State Assembly elections, in February 2002, the internal political situation that has emerged shows that BJP is in power only in three States — Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand. In Goa, where the BJP-led alliance was in power, the Chief Minister dissolved the Assembly mainly fearing a desertion by allied parties. The Congress I is now in power in thirteen important States, such as, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala and Assam. With the curent election results, the BJP’s influence in the Hindi belt has declined considerably.

Assessment

Though Prime Minister Vajpayee, during his election campaign, rejected the view that the election results would be a reflection on his government’s performance, yet the impact of these elections on the character of the central government cannot be ruled out. Since the BJP is heading a coalition government at the centre, the election results certainly have weakened BJP’s position within the NDA. Predictably, the role of the regional parties in the alliance will now be more assertive. What are the reasons for the poor performance of BJP during the State elections?

1. It has become obvious that during State elections voters are more concerned about local issues and not national issues. Though the trend was also obvious during the first two phases of State elections, it emerged very strongly during the third phase. BJP, during its election campaign, basically concentrated on issues related to national security, especially the Pakistan card and the related military build-up on the border. In addition, the BJP chose to make religion a factor and therefore encouraged the VHP in its Ram Mandir campaign in Ayodhya. The BJP leaders were hoping for major gains in Uttar Pradesh, at least, on these counts.

However, the issues that influenced the election outcome were efficient government, economic development, law and order situation and criminalisation of politics. The voters were disillusioned with the performance of State governments. For example, in Uttar Pradesh BJP’s first three years were marred by chaos, lack of economic development, unemployment etc. The government was not able to implement its commitments made to Backward classes. It was not able to implement ‘the quota within quota’ scheme (separate job reservations). The BJP government, in a haphazard way, tried to issue employment letters to 50,000 youth of Backward classes, which was stopped by the Supreme Court. Thus, the Backward classes were not supporting the BJP. In Uttaranchal, a State created by the BJP in 2000, the BJP government failed to deliver. This resulted in discontent among the population. In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP government was marred by corruption, unemployment and financial crisis. The opposition parties - Congress I, SP, BSP - concentrated on these weaknesses of the ruling State governments.

2. The policy of communal polarisation did not result in the desired gains by the BJP. The BJP’s tacit support to VHP campaign for building the Ram temple in Ayodhya after March 12, this year, failed to unite Hindu voters in favour of BJP. Furthermore, the communal factor united the Muslims against BJP. As part of the NDA, the BJP could not openly support VHP in its campaign. However, the BJP government only gave declaratory statements opposing the VHP’s plan to construct the Ram Temple. It took no concrete measures to stop the movement of VHP in Ayodhya.

Also, Mr. Vajpayee’s remarks regarding winning elections without Muslim support backfired. Thus, SP, Congress I and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) gained the Muslim vote. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims supported SP as its leader, Mulyam Singh Yadav, as Chief Minister of the State in 1990, had stopped the Hindu ‘kar sevaks,’ who would otherwise have desecrated the Babri Mosque at that time.

In relation to communal polarisation, after the present State Assembly elections the group in BJP led by Mr. Advani was of the view that BJP should not stop VHP activity and should let the new government face the law and order situation. This again was a miscalculation on the part of BJP, as the tense and sensitive situation in Ayodhya has resulted in communal violence in Gujarat where Muslims have become the main target of Hindu extremists. The incident of the burning of a bogey of Sabramati Express on February 27, allegedly by a Muslim mob, resulted in the current wave of communal violence. The Express was carrying Hindu activists from Ayodhya. So far, (March 5, 2002) more than 600 people have been killed and massive damage caused to Muslim property following riots in Gujrat in reaction to the train incident. The BJP government is in great difficulty as it is being criticised by opposition parties and human rights organisations in India for gravely mishandling the situation. The Hindu-Muslim riots have also spread to some parts of Uttar Pradesh.

The policy of communal polarisation adopted by BJP during the State Assembly elections for improving its vote-bank and the Hindu-Muslim riots in the aftermath of the elections indicate that religion has become a permanent factor in Indian politics.

3. Another reason was the internal disagreement among the BJP and NDA allies over the seats distribution, which led to the emergence of the ‘rebel menace’. This factor had a negative impact on BJP’s vote bank in Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. The NDA allies were not satisfied with the number of seats allocated to them. Therefore, they contested on more seats than allocated and fielded candidates against the BJP. This divided the votes. Also, in Uttar Pradesh some 41 ministers were not given party ticket. Most of them contested as independents against BJP candidates and some got party tickets by Congress I and Samajwadi Party. The disagreement over seats’ distribution has widened the gap between BJP and its NDA allies. Though there are no signs of any member withdrawing from NDA, because of anti-Congress I factor, yet, BJP will face a tough time in trying to govern smoothly.

Implications

1. Communal violence seems to be spreading to other parts of India, and Muslim businesses are being specifically targetted. This could lead to weakening of the economic security of the Indian Muslims.
2. BJP government’s survival at the centre may be in jeopardy. The BJP-led alliance may remain united, mainly because of the anti-Congress I syndrome. However, the BJP’s position in relation to its allies in NDA has weakened. Though it may not have lost the legitimacy to rule, now the dominance of regional parties will be more apparent. Much will depend upon how the BJP deals with the communal riots. So far it has come under severe criticism for mishandling the Guajrat violence. Secondly, support for the Budget presented in the Lok Sabha on February 27 will also determine the fate of the BJP government. Already, some NDA parties have reservations regarding the tax reforms being proposed by the government.
3. An unstable BJP government may chose to create an external incident with Pakistan to gain support within India and also to divert world attention from the communal violence in India. However, there is also the possibility that the BJP government may decide to finally start the dialogue process with Pakistan in order to gain support of the moderate elements in India, given the failure of Hindu extremism in the State Assembly elections.

---Fahmida Ashraf           
Senior Research Fellow

UTTAR PRADESH (Total Seats-403) (DECLARED-401 Seats) *
BJP+		109
BSP		97
CONG		26
OTHERS		24
SP+		146

PUNJAB (Total Seats-117) (DECLARED-116 Seats) *
Akali/BJP+		44
BSP		0
CONG+		63
OTHERS		9

MAINPUR (Total Seats-60) (DECLARED-55)
BJP		4
FPM		13
CONG		16
OTHERS		22

UTTARANCHAL (Total Seats-70) (DECLARED)
BJP+		19
BSP		7
CONG		36
OTHERS		8

BJP:     Bharatiya Janta Party
BSP:     Bahujan Samaj Party
SP:        Samajwadi Party
CONG: Congress I.
FPM:    Federal Party of Manipur

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